Lars Thomsen, futurologist and board member at Juice, outlines the trends for 2023 and provides an insight into upcoming market developments in Europe, the USA and China
Juice Technology AG, manufacturer of charging stations and software, leader in mobile charging stations for electric vehicles, and futurologist Lars Thomsen provide answers to the most pressing questions about the future of electromobility in Europe and the rest of the world.
In view of the increased energy costs, there is a certain degree of uncertainty among the public about the development of e-mobility. However, the increase in costs is closely linked to the current crisis and is therefore not permanent. This is particularly true of the electricity prices that rose sharply in 2022. The price distortions on the electricity market are due to the fact that one energy source (gas) has disproportionately increased the price of electricity according to the merit order pricing principle.
Decentralized power generation requires smart load management systems
However, the trend towards more and more renewable forms of electricity generation is unbroken, and the costs of these energies are still falling. In the medium to long term, electricity will become cheaper the more renewable energies are generated and the "smarter" the energy networks become.
As an active element of peak load smoothing in local power grids, electric cars will play a key role in creating stability in the power grid. This will become an important issue for all parties involved (car manufacturers, grid operators and customers) in the coming years.
The prerequisite for this is an intelligent distribution of the available electricity via smart charging systems. Dynamic load management is therefore a must for all new charging stations coming onto the market. Distribution can be even or prioritized and time-controlled.
The triumph of electromobility cannot be stopped
The ramp-up curve of e-mobility in the commercial and public sector is now beginning to grow exponentially. In more and more cities and municipalities, electric versions of public transport and municipal vehicles are replacing diesel-powered vehicles. The tipping point at which electric buses, vans or taxis are cheaper than diesel or petrol vehicles in terms of overall costs is now being reached in more and more areas. This means that the decision in favour of e-mobility often makes sense not only ecologically, but also economically. Even in the van and truck segments, the triumph of purely battery-electric drives is emerging in the coming years and decades.
It will be crucial that, in the medium term, public charging infrastructure will be available wherever it makes sense for operators and customers. The type of charging must also be adapted to the location. Christoph Erni, founder and CEO of Juice, points out: "A DC fast charging point is expensive to purchase. The choice of location therefore needs to be carefully considered. Parking spaces at hotels, leisure facilities, tourist attractions, shopping centers, airports and business parks can be equipped with 15 to 20 AC charging stations for the price of an HPC (high-power charger) and the batteries will still be full - and in a gentle way."
Development in Europe
There are sometimes striking differences between European countries in the development status of charging infrastructure. In Scandinavia, the Netherlands and Germany, for example, the expansion is already very advanced. However, countries such as Spain, Italy and Greece can catch up within a short period of time. The good thing about charging infrastructure is that it does not take long to build and install. Charging parks along motorways can be planned and built in just a few weeks or months; installing a charging station at home or at work can be done even faster.
In many European countries, local cooperatives are being formed by citizens, local businesses and municipalities who are taking parts of their energy production and supply into their own hands. This makes sense because if solar systems, storage and consumers can be used jointly on site, there are major efficiency gains, acceptance of local energy production increases and those involved even have the opportunity to benefit financially.
Development in the USA
The US is a region that has so far lagged behind Europe in the development of electric mobility. However, recent figures suggest that sales of electric cars in the US have grown rapidly in recent years. Inflation-reducing legislation and high gasoline prices, along with a host of new attractive products in all areas, have created a new impetus for the adoption of electric cars in the US. The already impressive market share of EVs in California and on the East Coast is now moving inland. In many segments, EVs are the better choice, not only from environmental but also economic and performance considerations. The expansion of EV charging infrastructure is also on the rise in the US, but must keep pace with increasing demand.
development in China
China's auto industry could gain up to 20% of the global market share in electric vehicles by 2027 and also become dominant in new electric mobility categories for the autonomous transport of people and goods in the medium to long term. Traditional OEMs in Europe and the USA are likely to find it increasingly difficult to compete with this opponent: When it comes to key components such as batteries, electronics, the use of artificial intelligence and autonomous driving, the Chinese seem to be not only further ahead, but above all faster. If the traditional OEMs cannot dramatically increase their innovation agility, China will be able to take a large part of the pie for itself in the medium to long term.
What does the year 2023 hold?
In the USA, the Inflation Reduction Act will boost the development, production and sales of electric vehicles and the construction of large battery production capacities from 2023. In Europe, we expect far-reaching new initiatives to keep the European industry competitive against the USA and China - not only for passenger cars, but also increasingly for commercial vehicles, buses and trucks.
China will become one of the largest markets and exporters of electric vehicles and will therefore incentivize its own industry to increase innovation and production of electric vehicles and batteries even faster. There is truly a global race for dominance in the next generation of mobility underway.
